Cui Dongshu Forecasts China's New Energy Passenger Car Sales to Reach 13.3 Million Units This Year, with a 57% Penetration Rate Setting a New Historical High
On January 2nd, Cui Dongshu, the Secretary-General of the Passenger Car Association, wrote in his public account that the national car market trend in 2024 showed a U-shaped growth pattern. The strong policy of scrapping and renewal subsidies in the second half of the year is expected to drive the full-year car market to an estimated retail of 22.94 million units, an increase of 5.7%. If the scrapping and renewal policy maintains the same strength as last year, it is estimated that the overall subsidy fund demand for scrapping renewal and scrapping renewal will exceed 200 billion yuan, far exceeding the historical peak of subsidies.
Cui Dongshu stated that based on the basic continuation of the 2024 policy, this year's domestic car market retail is expected to be 23.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2%; new energy passenger car retail is expected to be 13.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21%, and the penetration rate will reach 57%.
Below are Cui Dongshu's specific predictions:
